{
  "updated": "2026-11-10T04:12:46+00:00",
  "timezone": "America/New_York",
  "models": [
    {
      "id": "buffett",
      "name": "Buffett Indicator",
      "category": "valuation",
      "desc": "Total Market Cap / GDP.",
      "value": 255.0464,
      "value_display": "255%",
      "unit": "%",
      "sd": 2.0,
      "sd_raw": 2.982,
      "direction": 1,
      "direction_note": "High = expensive (+)",
      "as_of": "2026-04-01",
      "status": "ok",
      "unavailable_reason": null,
      "substitute_of": null,
      "substitute_note": null,
      "source_name": "Fed Z.1 nonfinancial corporate equities (NCBEILQ027S) / BEA GDP via FRED",
      "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NCBEILQ027S",
      "history": [
        {
          "date": "2016-04",
          "value": 134.9243
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-07",
          "value": 136.7673
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-10",
          "value": 135.4237
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-01",
          "value": 141.3694
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-04",
          "value": 142.4622
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-07",
          "value": 144.4984
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-10",
          "value": 149.829
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-01",
          "value": 146.3184
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-04",
          "value": 149.8621
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-07",
          "value": 156.5427
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-10",
          "value": 133.5075
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-01",
          "value": 150.8269
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-04",
          "value": 152.4798
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-07",
          "value": 150.9526
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-10",
          "value": 159.8781
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-01",
          "value": 128.7605
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-04",
          "value": 173.1202
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-07",
          "value": 175.6101
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-10",
          "value": 198.2525
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-01",
          "value": 205.7228
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-04",
          "value": 215.407
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-07",
          "value": 210.669
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-10",
          "value": 218.6505
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-01",
          "value": 202.8673
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-04",
          "value": 163.7528
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-07",
          "value": 153.2817
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-10",
          "value": 157.109
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-01",
          "value": 166.7253
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-04",
          "value": 177.7205
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-07",
          "value": 167.217
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-10",
          "value": 181.812
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-01",
          "value": 196.7506
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-04",
          "value": 199.0678
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-07",
          "value": 207.5877
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-10",
          "value": 209.7193
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-01",
          "value": 196.966
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-04",
          "value": 213.2973
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-07",
          "value": 225.7733
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-10",
          "value": 228.8275
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-01",
          "value": 219.4502
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04",
          "value": 255.0464
        }
      ],
      "window": "z-score vs history since 1990-01"
    },
    {
      "id": "cape",
      "name": "S&P 500 CAPE Ratio",
      "category": "valuation",
      "desc": "Shiller P/E.",
      "value": 38.91,
      "value_display": "38.9",
      "unit": "\u00d7",
      "sd": 1.67,
      "sd_raw": 1.668,
      "direction": 1,
      "direction_note": "High = expensive (+)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-06",
      "status": "ok",
      "unavailable_reason": null,
      "substitute_of": null,
      "substitute_note": null,
      "source_name": "History of Market (historyofmarket.com) CAPE, CC BY 4.0; methodology Robert Shiller",
      "source_url": "https://historyofmarket.com/api/sp500/pe.json",
      "history": [
        {
          "date": "2016-11",
          "value": 26.85
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-12",
          "value": 27.87
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-01",
          "value": 28.06
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-02",
          "value": 28.66
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-03",
          "value": 29.09
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-04",
          "value": 28.9
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-05",
          "value": 29.31
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-06",
          "value": 29.75
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-07",
          "value": 30.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-08",
          "value": 29.91
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-09",
          "value": 30.17
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-10",
          "value": 30.92
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-11",
          "value": 31.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-12",
          "value": 32.09
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-01",
          "value": 33.31
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-02",
          "value": 32.04
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-03",
          "value": 31.81
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-04",
          "value": 30.97
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-05",
          "value": 31.24
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-06",
          "value": 31.63
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-07",
          "value": 31.89
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-08",
          "value": 32.39
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-09",
          "value": 32.62
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-10",
          "value": 31.04
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-11",
          "value": 30.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-12",
          "value": 28.29
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-01",
          "value": 28.38
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-02",
          "value": 29.54
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-03",
          "value": 29.58
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-04",
          "value": 30.13
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-05",
          "value": 29.24
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-06",
          "value": 29.28
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-07",
          "value": 29.99
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-08",
          "value": 28.71
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-09",
          "value": 29.23
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-10",
          "value": 28.84
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-11",
          "value": 29.84
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-12",
          "value": 30.33
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-01",
          "value": 30.99
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-02",
          "value": 30.73
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-03",
          "value": 24.82
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-04",
          "value": 25.93
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-05",
          "value": 27.33
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-06",
          "value": 28.84
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-07",
          "value": 29.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-08",
          "value": 31.16
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-09",
          "value": 30.84
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-10",
          "value": 31.28
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-11",
          "value": 32.47
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-12",
          "value": 33.77
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-01",
          "value": 34.51
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-02",
          "value": 35.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-03",
          "value": 35.04
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-04",
          "value": 36.72
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-05",
          "value": 36.55
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-06",
          "value": 36.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-07",
          "value": 37.44
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-08",
          "value": 37.97
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-09",
          "value": 37.62
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-10",
          "value": 37.25
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-11",
          "value": 38.58
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-12",
          "value": 38.31
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-01",
          "value": 36.94
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-02",
          "value": 35.29
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-03",
          "value": 34.27
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-04",
          "value": 33.89
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-05",
          "value": 30.67
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-06",
          "value": 29.05
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-07",
          "value": 29.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-08",
          "value": 30.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-09",
          "value": 28.23
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-10",
          "value": 27.08
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-11",
          "value": 28.38
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-12",
          "value": 28.32
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-01",
          "value": 28.34
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-02",
          "value": 28.92
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-03",
          "value": 27.94
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-04",
          "value": 28.77
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-05",
          "value": 28.76
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-06",
          "value": 29.94
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-07",
          "value": 30.89
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-08",
          "value": 30.09
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-09",
          "value": 29.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-10",
          "value": 28.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-11",
          "value": 30.01
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-12",
          "value": 31.45
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-01",
          "value": 31.97
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-02",
          "value": 33.04
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-03",
          "value": 33.76
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-04",
          "value": 33.03
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-05",
          "value": 33.78
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-06",
          "value": 34.81
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-07",
          "value": 35.48
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-08",
          "value": 35.08
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-09",
          "value": 35.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-10",
          "value": 36.59
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-11",
          "value": 37.36
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-12",
          "value": 37.72
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-01",
          "value": 37.14
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-02",
          "value": 37.19
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-03",
          "value": 34.79
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-04",
          "value": 32.63
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-05",
          "value": 35.08
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-06",
          "value": 36.12
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-07",
          "value": 37.48
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-08",
          "value": 37.85
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-09",
          "value": 38.59
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-10",
          "value": 39.31
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-11",
          "value": 39.28
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-12",
          "value": 39.84
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-01",
          "value": 39.65
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-02",
          "value": 39.53
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03",
          "value": 37.66
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04",
          "value": 40.44
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05",
          "value": 42.66
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06",
          "value": 40.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07",
          "value": 40.91
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08",
          "value": 42.17
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09",
          "value": 41.48
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-10",
          "value": 40.13
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-11",
          "value": 38.91
        }
      ],
      "window": "z-score vs history since 1990-01"
    },
    {
      "id": "interest",
      "name": "Interest Rate Model",
      "category": "valuation",
      "desc": "Forward earnings yield minus Moody's Baa yield (pp).",
      "value": -1.3498,
      "value_display": "-1.35 pp",
      "unit": "pp",
      "sd": 0.67,
      "sd_raw": -0.665,
      "direction": -1,
      "direction_note": "High spread = stocks cheap vs bonds (\u2212)",
      "as_of": "2026-08-05",
      "status": "ok",
      "unavailable_reason": null,
      "substitute_of": null,
      "substitute_note": null,
      "source_name": "History of Market forward P/E (CC BY 4.0); Moody's Baa via FRED (BAA)",
      "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAA",
      "history": [
        {
          "date": "2016-08",
          "value": 1.5237
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-09",
          "value": 1.5073
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-10",
          "value": 1.5937
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-11",
          "value": 1.0637
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-12",
          "value": 0.9975
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-01",
          "value": 1.0674
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-02",
          "value": 0.9279
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-03",
          "value": 0.9697
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-04",
          "value": 1.0861
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-05",
          "value": 1.0743
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-06",
          "value": 1.2989
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-07",
          "value": 1.2154
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-08",
          "value": 1.401
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-09",
          "value": 1.2835
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-10",
          "value": 1.1866
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-11",
          "value": 1.2488
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-12",
          "value": 1.2655
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-01",
          "value": 1.1689
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-02",
          "value": 1.2871
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-03",
          "value": 1.465
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-04",
          "value": 1.4537
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-05",
          "value": 1.2416
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-06",
          "value": 1.3238
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-07",
          "value": 1.2052
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-08",
          "value": 1.102
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-09",
          "value": 1.0337
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-10",
          "value": 1.4532
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-11",
          "value": 1.0339
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-12",
          "value": 1.7809
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-01",
          "value": 1.2454
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-02",
          "value": 1.0668
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-03",
          "value": 1.1732
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-04",
          "value": 1.1445
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-05",
          "value": 1.6435
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-06",
          "value": 1.4258
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-07",
          "value": 1.4507
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-08",
          "value": 2.0824
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-09",
          "value": 2.0212
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-10",
          "value": 1.8603
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-11",
          "value": 1.6125
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-12",
          "value": 1.5254
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-01",
          "value": 1.6975
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-02",
          "value": 2.3247
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-03",
          "value": 2.0152
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-04",
          "value": 0.8402
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-05",
          "value": 0.5975
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-06",
          "value": 1.0837
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-07",
          "value": 1.2355
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-08",
          "value": 1.074
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-09",
          "value": 1.3592
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-10",
          "value": 1.462
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-11",
          "value": 1.2269
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-12",
          "value": 1.3143
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-01",
          "value": 1.4198
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-02",
          "value": 1.2333
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-03",
          "value": 0.8055
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-04",
          "value": 1.0147
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-05",
          "value": 1.0881
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-06",
          "value": 1.2504
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-07",
          "value": 1.5174
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-08",
          "value": 1.4837
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-09",
          "value": 1.5639
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-10",
          "value": 1.336
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-11",
          "value": 1.4842
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-12",
          "value": 1.3664
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-01",
          "value": 1.4884
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-02",
          "value": 1.19
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-03",
          "value": 0.7733
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-04",
          "value": 0.977
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-05",
          "value": 0.5265
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-06",
          "value": 0.7943
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-07",
          "value": 0.4654
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-08",
          "value": 0.6237
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-09",
          "value": 0.8545
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-10",
          "value": -0.3638
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-11",
          "value": -0.3914
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-12",
          "value": 0.3695
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-01",
          "value": 0.0463
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-02",
          "value": 0.0629
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-03",
          "value": -0.2215
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-04",
          "value": -0.0982
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-05",
          "value": -0.3529
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-06",
          "value": -0.5927
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-07",
          "value": -0.7098
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-08",
          "value": -0.681
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-09",
          "value": -0.6229
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-10",
          "value": -0.843
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-11",
          "value": -1.0241
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-12",
          "value": -0.5716
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-01",
          "value": -0.7368
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-02",
          "value": -0.9437
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-03",
          "value": -1.0152
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-04",
          "value": -1.069
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-05",
          "value": -1.1121
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-06",
          "value": -1.0919
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-07",
          "value": -1.069
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-08",
          "value": -0.9293
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-09",
          "value": -0.7989
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-10",
          "value": -1.0428
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-11",
          "value": -1.3097
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-12",
          "value": -1.238
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-01",
          "value": -1.5407
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-02",
          "value": -1.2947
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-03",
          "value": -0.9648
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-04",
          "value": -1.2172
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-05",
          "value": -1.6084
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-06",
          "value": -1.6107
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-07",
          "value": -1.6615
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-08",
          "value": -1.5137
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-09",
          "value": -1.413
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-10",
          "value": -1.3694
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-11",
          "value": -1.4116
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-12",
          "value": -1.4237
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-01",
          "value": -1.3138
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-02",
          "value": -1.1262
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03",
          "value": -0.7741
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04",
          "value": -1.2407
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05",
          "value": -1.3562
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06",
          "value": -0.985
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07",
          "value": -1.067
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08",
          "value": -1.3498
        }
      ],
      "window": "z-score vs history since 1990-01"
    },
    {
      "id": "eyg",
      "name": "Earnings Yield Gap",
      "category": "valuation",
      "desc": "Earnings yield minus 10Y yield.",
      "value": -0.5051,
      "value_display": "-0.51 pp",
      "unit": "pp",
      "sd": 0.38,
      "sd_raw": -0.376,
      "direction": -1,
      "direction_note": "High gap = stocks cheap vs Treasuries (\u2212)",
      "as_of": "2026-06-01",
      "status": "ok",
      "unavailable_reason": null,
      "substitute_of": null,
      "substitute_note": null,
      "source_name": "Shiller earnings yield; 10Y Treasury via FRED (GS10 / DGS10)",
      "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GS10",
      "history": [
        {
          "date": "2016-06",
          "value": 2.531
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-07",
          "value": 2.5785
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-08",
          "value": 2.5104
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-09",
          "value": 2.499
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-10",
          "value": 2.4821
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-11",
          "value": 2.1432
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-12",
          "value": 1.7185
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-01",
          "value": 1.8099
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-02",
          "value": 1.8023
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-03",
          "value": 1.7573
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-04",
          "value": 2.0035
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-05",
          "value": 1.9907
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-06",
          "value": 2.0836
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-07",
          "value": 1.9602
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-08",
          "value": 2.108
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-09",
          "value": 2.0955
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-10",
          "value": 1.8642
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-11",
          "value": 1.8506
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-12",
          "value": 1.7241
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-01",
          "value": 1.4251
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-02",
          "value": 1.3389
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-03",
          "value": 1.4312
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-04",
          "value": 1.5687
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-05",
          "value": 1.4669
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-06",
          "value": 1.5368
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-07",
          "value": 1.5886
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-08",
          "value": 1.5803
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-09",
          "value": 1.4939
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-10",
          "value": 1.555
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-11",
          "value": 1.717
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-12",
          "value": 2.3268
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-01",
          "value": 2.3931
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-02",
          "value": 2.1741
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-03",
          "value": 2.2228
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-04",
          "value": 2.1082
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-05",
          "value": 2.3282
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-06",
          "value": 2.6103
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-07",
          "value": 2.4285
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-08",
          "value": 2.984
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-09",
          "value": 2.7565
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-10",
          "value": 2.8268
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-11",
          "value": 2.6114
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-12",
          "value": 2.5303
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-01",
          "value": 2.2592
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-02",
          "value": 2.2849
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-03",
          "value": 3.5158
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-04",
          "value": 3.3455
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-05",
          "value": 2.924
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-06",
          "value": 2.4662
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-07",
          "value": 2.4631
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-08",
          "value": 2.2558
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-09",
          "value": 2.2384
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-10",
          "value": 2.0431
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-11",
          "value": 1.8207
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-12",
          "value": 1.6173
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-01",
          "value": 1.7005
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-02",
          "value": 1.7488
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-03",
          "value": 1.6683
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-04",
          "value": 1.7017
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-05",
          "value": 1.9447
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-06",
          "value": 2.2257
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-07",
          "value": 2.4455
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-08",
          "value": 2.5338
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-09",
          "value": 2.5762
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-10",
          "value": 2.5205
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-11",
          "value": 2.5192
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-12",
          "value": 2.7627
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-01",
          "value": 2.5664
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-02",
          "value": 2.5312
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-03",
          "value": 2.3769
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-04",
          "value": 1.714
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-05",
          "value": 1.9051
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-06",
          "value": 1.7911
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-07",
          "value": 1.9721
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-08",
          "value": 1.6426
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-09",
          "value": 1.3425
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-10",
          "value": 0.9154
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-11",
          "value": 0.6429
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-12",
          "value": 0.7955
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-01",
          "value": 0.852
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-02",
          "value": 0.5239
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-03",
          "value": 0.7539
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-04",
          "value": 0.8374
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-05",
          "value": 0.7488
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-06",
          "value": 0.4156
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-07",
          "value": 0.1392
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-08",
          "value": -0.0606
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-09",
          "value": -0.2011
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-10",
          "value": -0.4205
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-11",
          "value": -0.2466
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-12",
          "value": 0.0873
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-01",
          "value": -0.0712
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-02",
          "value": -0.3844
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-03",
          "value": -0.5085
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-04",
          "value": -0.7614
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-05",
          "value": -0.7558
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-06",
          "value": -0.6765
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-07",
          "value": -0.676
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-08",
          "value": -0.2356
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-09",
          "value": -0.1573
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-10",
          "value": -0.5855
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-11",
          "value": -0.8714
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-12",
          "value": -0.8935
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-01",
          "value": -1.0788
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-02",
          "value": -0.8976
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-03",
          "value": -0.4677
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-04",
          "value": -0.2082
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-05",
          "value": -0.624
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-06",
          "value": -0.6896
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-07",
          "value": -0.7885
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-08",
          "value": -0.6555
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-09",
          "value": -0.547
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-10",
          "value": -0.5408
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-11",
          "value": -0.5469
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-12",
          "value": -0.6286
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-01",
          "value": -0.6358
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-02",
          "value": -0.4355
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03",
          "value": -0.3169
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04",
          "value": -0.3967
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05",
          "value": -0.6464
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06",
          "value": -0.5051
        }
      ],
      "window": "z-score vs history since 1990-01"
    },
    {
      "id": "yieldcurve",
      "name": "Yield Curve (10Y-2Y)",
      "category": "recession",
      "desc": "Yield curve spread.",
      "value": 0.32,
      "value_display": "+0.32%",
      "unit": "%",
      "sd": 0.74,
      "sd_raw": -0.741,
      "direction": -1,
      "direction_note": "Inverted / low spread = recession risk (+)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09",
      "status": "ok",
      "unavailable_reason": null,
      "substitute_of": null,
      "substitute_note": null,
      "source_name": "FRED T10Y2Y (Board of Governors)",
      "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y",
      "history": [
        {
          "date": "2016-11",
          "value": 1.26
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-12",
          "value": 1.25
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-01",
          "value": 1.26
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-02",
          "value": 1.14
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-03",
          "value": 1.13
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-04",
          "value": 1.01
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-05",
          "value": 0.93
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-06",
          "value": 0.93
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-07",
          "value": 0.96
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-08",
          "value": 0.79
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-09",
          "value": 0.86
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-10",
          "value": 0.78
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-11",
          "value": 0.64
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-12",
          "value": 0.51
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-01",
          "value": 0.58
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-02",
          "value": 0.62
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-03",
          "value": 0.47
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-04",
          "value": 0.46
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-05",
          "value": 0.43
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-06",
          "value": 0.33
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-07",
          "value": 0.29
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-08",
          "value": 0.24
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-09",
          "value": 0.24
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-10",
          "value": 0.28
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-11",
          "value": 0.21
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-12",
          "value": 0.21
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-01",
          "value": 0.18
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-02",
          "value": 0.21
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-03",
          "value": 0.14
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-04",
          "value": 0.24
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-05",
          "value": 0.19
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-06",
          "value": 0.25
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-07",
          "value": 0.13
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-08",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-09",
          "value": 0.05
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-10",
          "value": 0.17
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-11",
          "value": 0.17
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-12",
          "value": 0.34
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-01",
          "value": 0.18
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-02",
          "value": 0.27
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-03",
          "value": 0.47
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-04",
          "value": 0.44
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-05",
          "value": 0.49
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-06",
          "value": 0.5
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-07",
          "value": 0.44
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-08",
          "value": 0.58
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-09",
          "value": 0.56
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-10",
          "value": 0.74
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-11",
          "value": 0.68
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-12",
          "value": 0.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-01",
          "value": 1.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-02",
          "value": 1.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-03",
          "value": 1.58
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-04",
          "value": 1.49
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-05",
          "value": 1.44
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-06",
          "value": 1.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-07",
          "value": 1.05
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-08",
          "value": 1.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-09",
          "value": 1.24
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-10",
          "value": 1.07
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-11",
          "value": 0.91
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-12",
          "value": 0.79
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-01",
          "value": 0.61
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-02",
          "value": 0.39
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-03",
          "value": 0.04
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-04",
          "value": 0.19
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-05",
          "value": 0.32
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-06",
          "value": 0.06
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-07",
          "value": -0.22
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-08",
          "value": -0.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-09",
          "value": -0.39
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-10",
          "value": -0.41
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-11",
          "value": -0.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-12",
          "value": -0.53
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-01",
          "value": -0.69
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-02",
          "value": -0.89
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-03",
          "value": -0.58
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-04",
          "value": -0.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-05",
          "value": -0.76
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-06",
          "value": -1.06
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-07",
          "value": -0.91
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-08",
          "value": -0.76
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-09",
          "value": -0.44
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-10",
          "value": -0.19
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-11",
          "value": -0.36
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-12",
          "value": -0.35
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-01",
          "value": -0.28
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-02",
          "value": -0.39
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-03",
          "value": -0.39
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-04",
          "value": -0.35
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-05",
          "value": -0.38
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-06",
          "value": -0.35
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-07",
          "value": -0.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-08",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-09",
          "value": 0.15
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-10",
          "value": 0.12
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-11",
          "value": 0.05
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-12",
          "value": 0.33
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-01",
          "value": 0.36
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-02",
          "value": 0.25
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-03",
          "value": 0.34
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-04",
          "value": 0.57
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-05",
          "value": 0.52
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-06",
          "value": 0.52
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-07",
          "value": 0.43
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-08",
          "value": 0.64
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-09",
          "value": 0.56
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-10",
          "value": 0.51
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-11",
          "value": 0.55
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-12",
          "value": 0.71
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-01",
          "value": 0.74
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-02",
          "value": 0.59
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03",
          "value": 0.51
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04",
          "value": 0.52
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05",
          "value": 0.47
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06",
          "value": 0.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07",
          "value": 0.47
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08",
          "value": 0.41
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09",
          "value": 0.41
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-10",
          "value": 0.38
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-11",
          "value": 0.32
        }
      ],
      "window": "z-score vs history since 1990-01"
    },
    {
      "id": "sahm",
      "name": "Sahm Rule",
      "category": "recession",
      "desc": "Unemployment trigger.",
      "value": 0.0,
      "value_display": "0.00",
      "unit": "pp",
      "sd": -0.37,
      "sd_raw": -0.37,
      "direction": 1,
      "direction_note": "Above 0.50 = recession signal (+)",
      "as_of": "2026-10-01",
      "status": "ok",
      "unavailable_reason": null,
      "substitute_of": null,
      "substitute_note": null,
      "source_name": "Sahm Rule (real-time) via FRED SAHMREALTIME; Claudia Sahm",
      "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME",
      "history": [
        {
          "date": "2016-10",
          "value": 0.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-11",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-12",
          "value": -0.07
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-01",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-02",
          "value": 0.03
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-03",
          "value": -0.03
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-04",
          "value": -0.13
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-05",
          "value": -0.13
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-06",
          "value": -0.03
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-07",
          "value": -0.03
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-08",
          "value": 0.03
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-09",
          "value": -0.03
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-10",
          "value": -0.07
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-11",
          "value": -0.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-12",
          "value": -0.03
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-01",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-02",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-03",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-04",
          "value": -0.07
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-05",
          "value": -0.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-06",
          "value": -0.03
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-07",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-08",
          "value": 0.03
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-09",
          "value": -0.07
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-10",
          "value": -0.07
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-11",
          "value": -0.07
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-12",
          "value": 0.07
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-01",
          "value": 0.13
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-02",
          "value": 0.17
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-03",
          "value": 0.13
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-04",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-05",
          "value": -0.07
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-06",
          "value": -0.03
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-07",
          "value": 0.03
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-08",
          "value": 0.07
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-09",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-10",
          "value": -0.03
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-11",
          "value": -0.07
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-12",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-01",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-02",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-03",
          "value": 0.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-04",
          "value": 4.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-05",
          "value": 7.27
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-06",
          "value": 9.5
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-07",
          "value": 8.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-08",
          "value": 6.37
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-09",
          "value": 5.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-10",
          "value": 4.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-11",
          "value": 3.63
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-12",
          "value": 3.23
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-01",
          "value": 3.03
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-02",
          "value": 2.87
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-03",
          "value": 2.33
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-04",
          "value": -0.07
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-05",
          "value": -0.13
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-06",
          "value": -0.03
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-07",
          "value": -0.23
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-08",
          "value": -0.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-09",
          "value": -0.37
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-10",
          "value": -0.27
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-11",
          "value": -0.33
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-12",
          "value": -0.27
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-01",
          "value": -0.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-02",
          "value": -0.13
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-03",
          "value": -0.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-04",
          "value": -0.13
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-05",
          "value": -0.07
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-06",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-07",
          "value": -0.03
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-08",
          "value": 0.03
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-09",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-10",
          "value": 0.07
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-11",
          "value": 0.07
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-12",
          "value": 0.03
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-01",
          "value": -0.07
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-02",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-03",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-04",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-05",
          "value": 0.03
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-06",
          "value": 0.07
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-07",
          "value": 0.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-08",
          "value": 0.13
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-09",
          "value": 0.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-10",
          "value": 0.33
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-11",
          "value": 0.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-12",
          "value": 0.23
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-01",
          "value": 0.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-02",
          "value": 0.27
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-03",
          "value": 0.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-04",
          "value": 0.37
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-05",
          "value": 0.37
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-06",
          "value": 0.43
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-07",
          "value": 0.53
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-08",
          "value": 0.57
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-09",
          "value": 0.5
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-10",
          "value": 0.43
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-11",
          "value": 0.43
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-12",
          "value": 0.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-01",
          "value": 0.37
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-02",
          "value": 0.27
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-03",
          "value": 0.27
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-04",
          "value": 0.27
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-05",
          "value": 0.27
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-06",
          "value": 0.17
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-07",
          "value": 0.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-08",
          "value": 0.13
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-09",
          "value": 0.23
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-11",
          "value": 0.43
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-12",
          "value": 0.35
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-01",
          "value": 0.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-02",
          "value": 0.27
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03",
          "value": 0.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04",
          "value": 0.13
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05",
          "value": 0.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06",
          "value": 0.07
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07",
          "value": -0.03
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08",
          "value": -0.07
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-10",
          "value": 0.0
        }
      ],
      "window": "z-score vs history since 1990-01"
    },
    {
      "id": "statecoin",
      "name": "State Coincidence",
      "category": "recession",
      "desc": "Share of states with a 3-month decline in the coincident index.",
      "value": 4.0,
      "value_display": "4%",
      "unit": "%",
      "sd": -0.34,
      "sd_raw": -0.337,
      "direction": 1,
      "direction_note": "More states declining = recession risk (+)",
      "as_of": "2026-09-01",
      "status": "ok",
      "unavailable_reason": null,
      "substitute_of": null,
      "substitute_note": null,
      "source_name": "Philadelphia Fed state coincident indexes",
      "source_url": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/state-coincident-indexes",
      "history": [
        {
          "date": "2016-09",
          "value": 2.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-10",
          "value": 2.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-11",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-12",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-01",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-02",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-03",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-04",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-05",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-06",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-07",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-08",
          "value": 4.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-09",
          "value": 4.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-10",
          "value": 2.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-11",
          "value": 2.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-12",
          "value": 2.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-01",
          "value": 4.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-02",
          "value": 2.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-03",
          "value": 2.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-04",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-05",
          "value": 2.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-06",
          "value": 2.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-07",
          "value": 4.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-08",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-09",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-10",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-11",
          "value": 2.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-12",
          "value": 2.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-01",
          "value": 2.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-02",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-03",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-04",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-05",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-06",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-07",
          "value": 2.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-08",
          "value": 6.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-09",
          "value": 8.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-10",
          "value": 6.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-11",
          "value": 4.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-12",
          "value": 6.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-01",
          "value": 6.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-02",
          "value": 12.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-03",
          "value": 54.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-04",
          "value": 100.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-05",
          "value": 100.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-06",
          "value": 100.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-07",
          "value": 8.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-08",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-09",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-10",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-11",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-12",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-01",
          "value": 2.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-02",
          "value": 4.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-03",
          "value": 4.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-04",
          "value": 4.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-05",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-06",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-07",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-08",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-09",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-10",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-11",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-12",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-01",
          "value": 2.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-02",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-03",
          "value": 2.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-04",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-05",
          "value": 2.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-06",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-07",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-08",
          "value": 4.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-09",
          "value": 4.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-10",
          "value": 4.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-11",
          "value": 4.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-12",
          "value": 2.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-01",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-02",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-03",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-04",
          "value": 4.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-05",
          "value": 2.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-06",
          "value": 2.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-07",
          "value": 4.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-08",
          "value": 12.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-09",
          "value": 16.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-10",
          "value": 20.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-11",
          "value": 10.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-12",
          "value": 8.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-01",
          "value": 8.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-02",
          "value": 2.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-03",
          "value": 4.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-04",
          "value": 8.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-05",
          "value": 12.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-06",
          "value": 12.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-07",
          "value": 8.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-08",
          "value": 4.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-09",
          "value": 6.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-10",
          "value": 2.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-11",
          "value": 2.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-12",
          "value": 4.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-01",
          "value": 4.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-02",
          "value": 8.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-03",
          "value": 2.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-04",
          "value": 4.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-05",
          "value": 6.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-06",
          "value": 10.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-07",
          "value": 14.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-08",
          "value": 18.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-09",
          "value": 14.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-10",
          "value": 12.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-11",
          "value": 20.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-12",
          "value": 12.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-01",
          "value": 18.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-02",
          "value": 12.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03",
          "value": 14.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04",
          "value": 4.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05",
          "value": 8.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06",
          "value": 8.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07",
          "value": 8.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08",
          "value": 6.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09",
          "value": 4.0
        }
      ],
      "window": "z-score vs history since 1990-01"
    },
    {
      "id": "margin",
      "name": "Margin Debt",
      "category": "sentiment",
      "desc": "NYSE/FINRA debit balances in customers' securities margin accounts.",
      "value": 1480.054,
      "value_display": "$1480B",
      "unit": "$B",
      "sd": 0.87,
      "sd_raw": 0.866,
      "direction": 1,
      "direction_note": "High YoY growth = leverage / complacency (+)",
      "as_of": "2026-09-01",
      "status": "ok",
      "unavailable_reason": null,
      "substitute_of": null,
      "substitute_note": null,
      "source_name": "FINRA margin statistics",
      "source_url": "https://www.finra.org/rules-guidance/key-topics/margin-accounts/margin-statistics",
      "history": [
        {
          "date": "2016-09",
          "value": 540.615
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-10",
          "value": 523.76
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-11",
          "value": 539.972
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-12",
          "value": 529.372
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-01",
          "value": 553.557
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-02",
          "value": 568.637
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-03",
          "value": 577.674
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-04",
          "value": 590.797
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-05",
          "value": 582.764
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-06",
          "value": 584.258
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-07",
          "value": 594.414
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-08",
          "value": 596.567
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-09",
          "value": 606.334
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-10",
          "value": 607.838
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-11",
          "value": 627.422
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-12",
          "value": 642.798
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-01",
          "value": 665.716
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-02",
          "value": 645.064
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-03",
          "value": 645.235
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-04",
          "value": 652.303
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-05",
          "value": 668.94
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-06",
          "value": 646.931
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-07",
          "value": 652.79
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-08",
          "value": 652.395
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-09",
          "value": 648.126
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-10",
          "value": 607.645
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-11",
          "value": 592.593
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-12",
          "value": 554.285
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-01",
          "value": 568.433
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-02",
          "value": 581.205
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-03",
          "value": 574.013
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-04",
          "value": 588.721
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-05",
          "value": 568.751
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-06",
          "value": 596.304
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-07",
          "value": 602.139
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-08",
          "value": 564.894
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-09",
          "value": 555.91
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-10",
          "value": 554.604
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-11",
          "value": 563.482
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-12",
          "value": 579.221
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-01",
          "value": 561.812
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-02",
          "value": 545.127
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-03",
          "value": 479.291
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-04",
          "value": 524.696
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-05",
          "value": 552.543
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-06",
          "value": 584.676
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-07",
          "value": 613.83
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-08",
          "value": 645.547
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-09",
          "value": 654.324
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-10",
          "value": 659.313
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-11",
          "value": 722.118
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-12",
          "value": 778.037
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-01",
          "value": 798.605
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-02",
          "value": 813.68
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-03",
          "value": 822.551
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-04",
          "value": 847.186
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-05",
          "value": 861.626
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-06",
          "value": 882.103
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-07",
          "value": 844.324
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-08",
          "value": 911.545
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-09",
          "value": 903.117
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-10",
          "value": 935.862
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-11",
          "value": 918.598
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-12",
          "value": 910.021
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-01",
          "value": 829.637
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-02",
          "value": 835.255
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-03",
          "value": 799.66
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-04",
          "value": 772.94
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-05",
          "value": 752.944
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-06",
          "value": 683.445
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-07",
          "value": 696.781
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-08",
          "value": 687.787
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-09",
          "value": 664.009
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-10",
          "value": 649.618
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-11",
          "value": 643.783
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-12",
          "value": 606.659
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-01",
          "value": 641.228
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-02",
          "value": 624.379
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-03",
          "value": 645.429
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-04",
          "value": 631.949
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-05",
          "value": 644.17
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-06",
          "value": 681.228
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-07",
          "value": 709.834
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-08",
          "value": 689.185
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-09",
          "value": 680.846
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-10",
          "value": 635.276
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-11",
          "value": 660.887
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-12",
          "value": 700.774
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-01",
          "value": 701.975
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-02",
          "value": 742.963
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-03",
          "value": 784.136
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-04",
          "value": 775.464
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-05",
          "value": 809.431
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-06",
          "value": 809.322
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-07",
          "value": 810.835
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-08",
          "value": 797.162
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-09",
          "value": 813.211
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-10",
          "value": 815.369
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-11",
          "value": 890.852
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-12",
          "value": 899.168
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-01",
          "value": 937.253
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-02",
          "value": 918.144
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-03",
          "value": 880.316
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-04",
          "value": 850.558
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-05",
          "value": 920.96
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-06",
          "value": 1007.96
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-07",
          "value": 1022.55
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-08",
          "value": 1059.72
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-09",
          "value": 1126.49
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-10",
          "value": 1183.65
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-11",
          "value": 1214.32
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-12",
          "value": 1225.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-01",
          "value": 1279.04
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-02",
          "value": 1253.19
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03",
          "value": 1220.92
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04",
          "value": 1304.28
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05",
          "value": 1415.56
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06",
          "value": 1502.07
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07",
          "value": 1417.22
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08",
          "value": 1453.83
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09",
          "value": 1480.05
        }
      ],
      "window": "z-score vs history since 1998-01"
    },
    {
      "id": "junk",
      "name": "Junk Bond Spreads",
      "category": "sentiment",
      "desc": "Credit risk premium (substitute series).",
      "value": 1.46,
      "value_display": "1.46 pp",
      "unit": "pp",
      "sd": 1.15,
      "sd_raw": -1.15,
      "direction": -1,
      "direction_note": "Wide spreads = fear / contrarian bullish (\u2212)",
      "as_of": "2026-10-01",
      "status": "substitute",
      "unavailable_reason": null,
      "substitute_of": "ICE BofA US High Yield OAS (FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2)",
      "substitute_note": "ICE BofA HY OAS is Copyrighted: Pre-Approval Required on FRED and is not redistributed. Using Moody's Baa \u2212 10Y Treasury as a public credit-spread stand-in.",
      "source_name": "Moody's Baa minus 10Y Treasury (FRED BAA \u2212 GS10)",
      "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAA",
      "history": [
        {
          "date": "2016-10",
          "value": 2.62
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-11",
          "value": 2.57
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-12",
          "value": 2.34
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-01",
          "value": 2.23
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-02",
          "value": 2.22
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-03",
          "value": 2.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-04",
          "value": 2.27
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-05",
          "value": 2.25
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-06",
          "value": 2.18
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-07",
          "value": 2.07
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-08",
          "value": 2.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-09",
          "value": 2.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-10",
          "value": 1.96
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-11",
          "value": 1.92
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-12",
          "value": 1.82
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-01",
          "value": 1.68
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-02",
          "value": 1.65
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-03",
          "value": 1.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-04",
          "value": 1.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-05",
          "value": 1.85
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-06",
          "value": 1.92
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-07",
          "value": 1.9
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-08",
          "value": 1.88
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-09",
          "value": 1.88
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-10",
          "value": 1.92
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-11",
          "value": 2.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-12",
          "value": 2.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-01",
          "value": 2.41
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-02",
          "value": 2.27
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-03",
          "value": 2.27
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-04",
          "value": 2.17
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-05",
          "value": 2.23
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-06",
          "value": 2.39
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-07",
          "value": 2.22
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-08",
          "value": 2.24
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-09",
          "value": 2.21
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-10",
          "value": 2.21
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-11",
          "value": 2.13
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-12",
          "value": 2.02
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-01",
          "value": 2.01
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-02",
          "value": 2.11
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-03",
          "value": 3.42
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-04",
          "value": 3.47
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-05",
          "value": 3.28
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-06",
          "value": 2.91
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-07",
          "value": 2.69
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-08",
          "value": 2.62
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-09",
          "value": 2.68
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-10",
          "value": 2.65
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-11",
          "value": 2.43
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-12",
          "value": 2.23
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-01",
          "value": 2.16
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-02",
          "value": 2.16
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-03",
          "value": 2.13
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-04",
          "value": 1.96
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-05",
          "value": 2.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-06",
          "value": 1.92
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-07",
          "value": 1.92
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-08",
          "value": 1.96
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-09",
          "value": 1.86
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-10",
          "value": 1.77
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-11",
          "value": 1.72
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-12",
          "value": 1.83
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-01",
          "value": 1.82
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-02",
          "value": 2.04
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-03",
          "value": 2.16
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-04",
          "value": 1.91
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-05",
          "value": 2.22
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-06",
          "value": 2.13
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-07",
          "value": 2.31
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-08",
          "value": 2.25
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-09",
          "value": 2.17
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-10",
          "value": 2.28
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-11",
          "value": 2.18
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-12",
          "value": 1.97
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-01",
          "value": 1.97
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-02",
          "value": 1.84
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-03",
          "value": 2.05
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-04",
          "value": 2.07
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-05",
          "value": 2.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-06",
          "value": 2.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-07",
          "value": 1.84
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-08",
          "value": 1.85
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-09",
          "value": 1.78
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-10",
          "value": 1.83
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-11",
          "value": 1.79
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-12",
          "value": 1.62
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-01",
          "value": 1.62
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-02",
          "value": 1.56
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-03",
          "value": 1.54
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-04",
          "value": 1.46
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-05",
          "value": 1.47
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-06",
          "value": 1.51
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-07",
          "value": 1.59
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-08",
          "value": 1.73
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-09",
          "value": 1.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-10",
          "value": 1.53
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-11",
          "value": 1.42
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-12",
          "value": 1.41
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-01",
          "value": 1.45
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-02",
          "value": 1.47
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-03",
          "value": 1.65
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-04",
          "value": 1.9
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-05",
          "value": 1.87
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-06",
          "value": 1.77
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-07",
          "value": 1.71
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-08",
          "value": 1.74
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-09",
          "value": 1.71
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-10",
          "value": 1.68
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-11",
          "value": 1.77
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-12",
          "value": 1.76
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-01",
          "value": 1.67
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-02",
          "value": 1.68
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03",
          "value": 1.79
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04",
          "value": 1.71
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05",
          "value": 1.62
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06",
          "value": 1.53
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07",
          "value": 1.59
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08",
          "value": 1.64
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09",
          "value": 1.48
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-10",
          "value": 1.46
        }
      ],
      "window": "z-score vs history since 1990-01"
    },
    {
      "id": "vix",
      "name": "VIX Fear Index",
      "category": "sentiment",
      "desc": "CBOE Volatility Index.",
      "value": 25.64,
      "value_display": "25.6",
      "unit": "",
      "sd": -0.84,
      "sd_raw": 0.84,
      "direction": -1,
      "direction_note": "High VIX = fear / contrarian bullish (\u2212)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-06",
      "status": "ok",
      "unavailable_reason": null,
      "substitute_of": null,
      "substitute_note": null,
      "source_name": "Cboe VIX via FRED VIXCLS (Copyrighted: Citation Required)",
      "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VIXCLS",
      "history": [
        {
          "date": "2016-11",
          "value": 13.33
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-12",
          "value": 14.04
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-01",
          "value": 11.99
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-02",
          "value": 12.92
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-03",
          "value": 12.37
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-04",
          "value": 10.82
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-05",
          "value": 10.41
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-06",
          "value": 11.18
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-07",
          "value": 10.26
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-08",
          "value": 10.59
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-09",
          "value": 9.51
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-10",
          "value": 10.18
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-11",
          "value": 11.28
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-12",
          "value": 11.04
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-01",
          "value": 13.54
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-02",
          "value": 19.85
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-03",
          "value": 19.97
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-04",
          "value": 15.93
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-05",
          "value": 15.43
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-06",
          "value": 16.09
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-07",
          "value": 12.83
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-08",
          "value": 12.86
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-09",
          "value": 12.12
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-10",
          "value": 21.23
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-11",
          "value": 18.07
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-12",
          "value": 25.42
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-01",
          "value": 16.57
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-02",
          "value": 14.78
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-03",
          "value": 13.71
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-04",
          "value": 13.12
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-05",
          "value": 18.71
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-06",
          "value": 15.08
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-07",
          "value": 16.12
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-08",
          "value": 18.98
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-09",
          "value": 16.24
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-10",
          "value": 13.22
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-11",
          "value": 12.62
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-12",
          "value": 13.78
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-01",
          "value": 18.84
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-02",
          "value": 40.11
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-03",
          "value": 53.54
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-04",
          "value": 34.15
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-05",
          "value": 27.51
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-06",
          "value": 30.43
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-07",
          "value": 24.46
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-08",
          "value": 26.41
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-09",
          "value": 26.37
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-10",
          "value": 38.02
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-11",
          "value": 20.57
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-12",
          "value": 22.75
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-01",
          "value": 33.09
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-02",
          "value": 27.95
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-03",
          "value": 19.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-04",
          "value": 18.61
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-05",
          "value": 16.76
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-06",
          "value": 15.83
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-07",
          "value": 18.24
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-08",
          "value": 16.48
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-09",
          "value": 23.14
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-10",
          "value": 16.26
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-11",
          "value": 27.19
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-12",
          "value": 17.22
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-01",
          "value": 24.83
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-02",
          "value": 30.15
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-03",
          "value": 20.56
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-04",
          "value": 33.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-05",
          "value": 26.19
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-06",
          "value": 28.71
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-07",
          "value": 21.33
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-08",
          "value": 25.87
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-09",
          "value": 31.62
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-10",
          "value": 25.88
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-11",
          "value": 20.58
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-12",
          "value": 21.67
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-01",
          "value": 19.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-02",
          "value": 20.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-03",
          "value": 18.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-04",
          "value": 15.78
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-05",
          "value": 17.94
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-06",
          "value": 13.59
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-07",
          "value": 13.63
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-08",
          "value": 13.57
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-09",
          "value": 17.52
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-10",
          "value": 18.14
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-11",
          "value": 12.92
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-12",
          "value": 12.45
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-01",
          "value": 14.35
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-02",
          "value": 13.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-03",
          "value": 13.01
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-04",
          "value": 15.65
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-05",
          "value": 12.92
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-06",
          "value": 12.44
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-07",
          "value": 16.36
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-08",
          "value": 15.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-09",
          "value": 16.73
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-10",
          "value": 23.16
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-11",
          "value": 13.51
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-12",
          "value": 17.35
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-01",
          "value": 16.43
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-02",
          "value": 19.63
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-03",
          "value": 22.28
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-04",
          "value": 24.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-05",
          "value": 18.57
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-06",
          "value": 16.73
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-07",
          "value": 16.72
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-08",
          "value": 15.36
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-09",
          "value": 16.28
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-10",
          "value": 17.44
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-11",
          "value": 16.35
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-12",
          "value": 14.95
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-01",
          "value": 17.44
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-02",
          "value": 19.86
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03",
          "value": 25.25
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04",
          "value": 16.89
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05",
          "value": 15.32
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06",
          "value": 16.45
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07",
          "value": 15.99
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08",
          "value": 14.92
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09",
          "value": 16.34
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-10",
          "value": 19.42
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-11",
          "value": 25.64
        }
      ],
      "window": "z-score vs history since 1990-01"
    },
    {
      "id": "epu",
      "name": "Economic Policy Uncertainty",
      "category": "sentiment",
      "desc": "Baker, Bloom & Davis Index.",
      "value": 157.0432,
      "value_display": "157",
      "unit": "",
      "sd": -0.7,
      "sd_raw": 0.696,
      "direction": -1,
      "direction_note": "High uncertainty = fear / contrarian bullish (\u2212)",
      "as_of": "2026-10-01",
      "status": "ok",
      "unavailable_reason": null,
      "substitute_of": null,
      "substitute_note": null,
      "source_name": "Baker, Bloom & Davis via FRED USEPUINDXM (public domain)",
      "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USEPUINDXM",
      "history": [
        {
          "date": "2016-10",
          "value": 92.5178
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-11",
          "value": 169.3778
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-12",
          "value": 115.1521
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-01",
          "value": 134.8695
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-02",
          "value": 133.3315
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-03",
          "value": 119.7762
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-04",
          "value": 121.5706
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-05",
          "value": 104.171
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-06",
          "value": 98.759
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-07",
          "value": 110.7536
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-08",
          "value": 109.1783
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-09",
          "value": 96.7508
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-10",
          "value": 102.1606
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-11",
          "value": 94.4896
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-12",
          "value": 111.4972
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-01",
          "value": 123.6516
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-02",
          "value": 94.0074
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-03",
          "value": 136.3343
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-04",
          "value": 108.2137
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-05",
          "value": 124.9367
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-06",
          "value": 108.6274
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-07",
          "value": 133.0863
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-08",
          "value": 99.1356
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-09",
          "value": 102.6602
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-10",
          "value": 111.5126
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-11",
          "value": 130.2239
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-12",
          "value": 166.2868
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-01",
          "value": 201.032
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-02",
          "value": 106.9007
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-03",
          "value": 140.2474
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-04",
          "value": 98.7367
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-05",
          "value": 122.5388
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-06",
          "value": 150.1168
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-07",
          "value": 149.9729
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-08",
          "value": 190.4632
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-09",
          "value": 134.3618
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-10",
          "value": 118.4882
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-11",
          "value": 131.7507
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-12",
          "value": 143.4673
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-01",
          "value": 131.3911
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-02",
          "value": 160.5156
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-03",
          "value": 283.1472
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-04",
          "value": 268.6164
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-05",
          "value": 350.4598
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-06",
          "value": 231.2598
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-07",
          "value": 305.9635
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-08",
          "value": 224.4264
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-09",
          "value": 218.0583
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-10",
          "value": 249.1736
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-11",
          "value": 246.7071
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-12",
          "value": 246.1261
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-01",
          "value": 207.9124
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-02",
          "value": 151.9329
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-03",
          "value": 139.8012
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-04",
          "value": 124.8895
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-05",
          "value": 147.0158
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-06",
          "value": 133.5789
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-07",
          "value": 152.9109
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-08",
          "value": 133.8145
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-09",
          "value": 142.0676
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-10",
          "value": 121.9515
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-11",
          "value": 151.2868
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-12",
          "value": 166.2426
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-01",
          "value": 139.2376
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-02",
          "value": 138.0535
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-03",
          "value": 190.0124
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-04",
          "value": 154.662
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-05",
          "value": 168.0008
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-06",
          "value": 145.9759
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-07",
          "value": 186.9214
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-08",
          "value": 163.2398
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-09",
          "value": 174.1835
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-10",
          "value": 177.4231
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-11",
          "value": 171.7373
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-12",
          "value": 136.4332
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-01",
          "value": 139.1246
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-02",
          "value": 120.1366
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-03",
          "value": 147.9425
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-04",
          "value": 127.4214
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-05",
          "value": 156.1929
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-06",
          "value": 141.0571
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-07",
          "value": 113.7926
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-08",
          "value": 84.4931
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-09",
          "value": 108.3975
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-10",
          "value": 117.6979
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-11",
          "value": 125.4752
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-12",
          "value": 105.7713
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-01",
          "value": 121.9639
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-02",
          "value": 87.2367
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-03",
          "value": 93.204
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-04",
          "value": 106.4863
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-05",
          "value": 103.8162
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-06",
          "value": 115.8524
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-07",
          "value": 116.2961
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-08",
          "value": 112.3123
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-09",
          "value": 105.8952
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-10",
          "value": 95.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-11",
          "value": 160.5206
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-12",
          "value": 156.8909
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-01",
          "value": 167.3886
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-02",
          "value": 228.6192
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-03",
          "value": 297.084
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-04",
          "value": 460.1143
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-05",
          "value": 364.0518
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-06",
          "value": 253.8181
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-07",
          "value": 251.757
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-08",
          "value": 254.1274
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-09",
          "value": 224.2376
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-10",
          "value": 217.5085
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-11",
          "value": 218.766
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-12",
          "value": 205.2765
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-01",
          "value": 265.5133
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-02",
          "value": 263.3101
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03",
          "value": 263.582
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04",
          "value": 219.0879
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05",
          "value": 247.6244
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06",
          "value": 213.2946
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07",
          "value": 185.6914
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08",
          "value": 173.3647
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09",
          "value": 168.5852
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-10",
          "value": 157.0432
        }
      ],
      "window": "z-score vs history since 1990-01"
    },
    {
      "id": "consumer",
      "name": "Consumer Confidence",
      "category": "sentiment",
      "desc": "U of Michigan Index.",
      "value": 48.1,
      "value_display": "48.1",
      "unit": "",
      "sd": -2.0,
      "sd_raw": -2.448,
      "direction": 1,
      "direction_note": "High confidence = complacency (+); low = contrarian bullish (\u2212)",
      "as_of": "2026-09-01",
      "status": "ok",
      "unavailable_reason": null,
      "substitute_of": null,
      "substitute_note": null,
      "source_name": "Surveys of Consumers, University of Michigan via FRED UMCSENT (Citation Required)",
      "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT",
      "history": [
        {
          "date": "2016-09",
          "value": 91.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-10",
          "value": 87.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-11",
          "value": 93.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-12",
          "value": 98.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-01",
          "value": 98.5
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-02",
          "value": 96.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-03",
          "value": 96.9
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-04",
          "value": 97.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-05",
          "value": 97.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-06",
          "value": 95.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-07",
          "value": 93.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-08",
          "value": 96.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-09",
          "value": 95.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-10",
          "value": 100.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-11",
          "value": 98.5
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-12",
          "value": 95.9
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-01",
          "value": 95.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-02",
          "value": 99.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-03",
          "value": 101.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-04",
          "value": 98.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-05",
          "value": 98.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-06",
          "value": 98.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-07",
          "value": 97.9
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-08",
          "value": 96.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-09",
          "value": 100.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-10",
          "value": 98.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-11",
          "value": 97.5
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-12",
          "value": 98.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-01",
          "value": 91.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-02",
          "value": 93.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-03",
          "value": 98.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-04",
          "value": 97.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-05",
          "value": 100.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-06",
          "value": 98.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-07",
          "value": 98.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-08",
          "value": 89.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-09",
          "value": 93.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-10",
          "value": 95.5
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-11",
          "value": 96.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-12",
          "value": 99.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-01",
          "value": 99.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-02",
          "value": 101.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-03",
          "value": 89.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-04",
          "value": 71.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-05",
          "value": 72.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-06",
          "value": 78.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-07",
          "value": 72.5
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-08",
          "value": 74.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-09",
          "value": 80.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-10",
          "value": 81.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-11",
          "value": 76.9
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-12",
          "value": 80.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-01",
          "value": 79.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-02",
          "value": 76.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-03",
          "value": 84.9
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-04",
          "value": 88.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-05",
          "value": 82.9
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-06",
          "value": 85.5
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-07",
          "value": 81.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-08",
          "value": 70.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-09",
          "value": 72.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-10",
          "value": 71.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-11",
          "value": 67.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-12",
          "value": 70.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-01",
          "value": 67.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-02",
          "value": 62.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-03",
          "value": 59.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-04",
          "value": 65.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-05",
          "value": 58.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-06",
          "value": 50.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-07",
          "value": 51.5
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-08",
          "value": 58.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-09",
          "value": 58.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-10",
          "value": 59.9
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-11",
          "value": 56.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-12",
          "value": 59.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-01",
          "value": 64.9
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-02",
          "value": 66.9
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-03",
          "value": 62.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-04",
          "value": 63.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-05",
          "value": 59.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-06",
          "value": 64.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-07",
          "value": 71.5
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-08",
          "value": 69.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-09",
          "value": 67.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-10",
          "value": 63.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-11",
          "value": 61.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-12",
          "value": 69.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-01",
          "value": 79.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-02",
          "value": 76.9
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-03",
          "value": 79.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-04",
          "value": 77.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-05",
          "value": 69.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-06",
          "value": 68.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-07",
          "value": 66.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-08",
          "value": 67.9
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-09",
          "value": 70.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-10",
          "value": 70.5
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-11",
          "value": 71.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-12",
          "value": 74.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-01",
          "value": 71.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-02",
          "value": 64.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-03",
          "value": 57.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-04",
          "value": 52.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-05",
          "value": 52.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-06",
          "value": 60.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-07",
          "value": 61.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-08",
          "value": 58.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-09",
          "value": 55.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-10",
          "value": 53.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-11",
          "value": 51.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-12",
          "value": 52.9
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-01",
          "value": 56.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-02",
          "value": 56.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03",
          "value": 53.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04",
          "value": 49.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05",
          "value": 44.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06",
          "value": 49.5
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07",
          "value": 55.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08",
          "value": 51.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09",
          "value": 48.1
        }
      ],
      "window": "z-score vs history since 1990-01"
    }
  ],
  "composite": {
    "score": 0.52,
    "signal": "SELL",
    "signal_color": "#FF8A65",
    "valuation_avg": 1.18,
    "recession_avg": 0.01,
    "sentiment_avg": -0.3,
    "weights": {
      "valuation": 0.5,
      "recession": 0.25,
      "sentiment": 0.25
    }
  },
  "recession_probability": {
    "prob": 26.5,
    "method": "NY Fed yield-curve recession probability (probability of recession 12 months ahead)",
    "as_of": "2026-10-31",
    "source_name": "Federal Reserve Bank of New York",
    "source_url": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq",
    "status": "ok",
    "history": [
      {
        "date": "2016-01",
        "value": 4.42
      },
      {
        "date": "2016-02",
        "value": 3.8
      },
      {
        "date": "2016-03",
        "value": 3.55
      },
      {
        "date": "2016-04",
        "value": 4.02
      },
      {
        "date": "2016-05",
        "value": 2.79
      },
      {
        "date": "2016-06",
        "value": 2.2
      },
      {
        "date": "2016-07",
        "value": 2.37
      },
      {
        "date": "2016-08",
        "value": 3.13
      },
      {
        "date": "2016-09",
        "value": 2.91
      },
      {
        "date": "2016-10",
        "value": 3.36
      },
      {
        "date": "2016-11",
        "value": 2.96
      },
      {
        "date": "2016-12",
        "value": 3.57
      },
      {
        "date": "2017-01",
        "value": 4.56
      },
      {
        "date": "2017-02",
        "value": 7.2
      },
      {
        "date": "2017-03",
        "value": 6.14
      },
      {
        "date": "2017-04",
        "value": 6.28
      },
      {
        "date": "2017-05",
        "value": 6.61
      },
      {
        "date": "2017-06",
        "value": 8.11
      },
      {
        "date": "2017-07",
        "value": 9.85
      },
      {
        "date": "2017-08",
        "value": 9.21
      },
      {
        "date": "2017-09",
        "value": 8.4
      },
      {
        "date": "2017-10",
        "value": 7.56
      },
      {
        "date": "2017-11",
        "value": 5.49
      },
      {
        "date": "2017-12",
        "value": 3.74
      },
      {
        "date": "2018-01",
        "value": 4.06
      },
      {
        "date": "2018-02",
        "value": 4.17
      },
      {
        "date": "2018-03",
        "value": 5.18
      },
      {
        "date": "2018-04",
        "value": 7.01
      },
      {
        "date": "2018-05",
        "value": 7.83
      },
      {
        "date": "2018-06",
        "value": 9.87
      },
      {
        "date": "2018-07",
        "value": 9.45
      },
      {
        "date": "2018-08",
        "value": 9.99
      },
      {
        "date": "2018-09",
        "value": 10.33
      },
      {
        "date": "2018-10",
        "value": 9.04
      },
      {
        "date": "2018-11",
        "value": 10.95
      },
      {
        "date": "2018-12",
        "value": 11.46
      },
      {
        "date": "2019-01",
        "value": 10.41
      },
      {
        "date": "2019-02",
        "value": 9.14
      },
      {
        "date": "2019-03",
        "value": 10.84
      },
      {
        "date": "2019-04",
        "value": 11.21
      },
      {
        "date": "2019-05",
        "value": 11.12
      },
      {
        "date": "2019-06",
        "value": 12.51
      },
      {
        "date": "2019-07",
        "value": 13.6
      },
      {
        "date": "2019-08",
        "value": 14.61
      },
      {
        "date": "2019-09",
        "value": 14.51
      },
      {
        "date": "2019-10",
        "value": 14.12
      },
      {
        "date": "2019-11",
        "value": 15.77
      },
      {
        "date": "2019-12",
        "value": 21.35
      },
      {
        "date": "2020-01",
        "value": 23.62
      },
      {
        "date": "2020-02",
        "value": 24.62
      },
      {
        "date": "2020-03",
        "value": 27.08
      },
      {
        "date": "2020-04",
        "value": 27.49
      },
      {
        "date": "2020-05",
        "value": 29.62
      },
      {
        "date": "2020-06",
        "value": 32.88
      },
      {
        "date": "2020-07",
        "value": 31.48
      },
      {
        "date": "2020-08",
        "value": 37.93
      },
      {
        "date": "2020-09",
        "value": 34.8
      },
      {
        "date": "2020-10",
        "value": 29.04
      },
      {
        "date": "2020-11",
        "value": 24.61
      },
      {
        "date": "2020-12",
        "value": 23.62
      },
      {
        "date": "2021-01",
        "value": 25.2
      },
      {
        "date": "2021-02",
        "value": 30.73
      },
      {
        "date": "2021-03",
        "value": 18.47
      },
      {
        "date": "2021-04",
        "value": 19.46
      },
      {
        "date": "2021-05",
        "value": 19.11
      },
      {
        "date": "2021-06",
        "value": 18.6
      },
      {
        "date": "2021-07",
        "value": 19.98
      },
      {
        "date": "2021-08",
        "value": 18.93
      },
      {
        "date": "2021-09",
        "value": 18.59
      },
      {
        "date": "2021-10",
        "value": 16.62
      },
      {
        "date": "2021-11",
        "value": 15.24
      },
      {
        "date": "2021-12",
        "value": 14.36
      },
      {
        "date": "2022-01",
        "value": 12.19
      },
      {
        "date": "2022-02",
        "value": 9.59
      },
      {
        "date": "2022-03",
        "value": 6.26
      },
      {
        "date": "2022-04",
        "value": 5.95
      },
      {
        "date": "2022-05",
        "value": 6.11
      },
      {
        "date": "2022-06",
        "value": 7.08
      },
      {
        "date": "2022-07",
        "value": 9.06
      },
      {
        "date": "2022-08",
        "value": 9.49
      },
      {
        "date": "2022-09",
        "value": 8.46
      },
      {
        "date": "2022-10",
        "value": 6.66
      },
      {
        "date": "2022-11",
        "value": 6.83
      },
      {
        "date": "2022-12",
        "value": 7.7
      },
      {
        "date": "2023-01",
        "value": 6.04
      },
      {
        "date": "2023-02",
        "value": 6.14
      },
      {
        "date": "2023-03",
        "value": 5.49
      },
      {
        "date": "2023-04",
        "value": 3.71
      },
      {
        "date": "2023-05",
        "value": 4.11
      },
      {
        "date": "2023-06",
        "value": 5.93
      },
      {
        "date": "2023-07",
        "value": 17.63
      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08",
        "value": 25.15
      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09",
        "value": 23.07
      },
      {
        "date": "2023-10",
        "value": 26.03
      },
      {
        "date": "2023-11",
        "value": 38.06
      },
      {
        "date": "2023-12",
        "value": 47.31
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-01",
        "value": 57.13
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-02",
        "value": 54.49
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-03",
        "value": 57.77
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-04",
        "value": 68.22
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-05",
        "value": 70.85
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-06",
        "value": 67.31
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-07",
        "value": 66.01
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-08",
        "value": 60.83
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-09",
        "value": 56.16
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-10",
        "value": 46.11
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-11",
        "value": 51.84
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-12",
        "value": 62.94
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-01",
        "value": 61.47
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-02",
        "value": 58.31
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-03",
        "value": 58.31
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-04",
        "value": 50.04
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-05",
        "value": 51.82
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-06",
        "value": 55.83
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-07",
        "value": 56.29
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08",
        "value": 61.79
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-09",
        "value": 57.06
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10",
        "value": 42.05
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11",
        "value": 33.56
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12",
        "value": 29.4
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01",
        "value": 23.18
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02",
        "value": 27.01
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03",
        "value": 30.22
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04",
        "value": 30.45
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05",
        "value": 28.3
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06",
        "value": 28.72
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07",
        "value": 28.95
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08",
        "value": 28.85
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-09",
        "value": 27.42
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-10",
        "value": 26.51
      }
    ]
  },
  "errors": [],
  "notes": [
    "SD scores are z-scores vs each series' own history (typically since 1990), multiplied by a direction so +SD is bearish/expensive/risky for the composite, then capped at \u00b12.",
    "Weights: Valuation 50%, Recession 25%, Sentiment 25%.",
    "Signal map: \u2264\u22121.5 Strong Buy; \u2264\u22120.5 Buy; \u22640.5 Hold; \u22641.5 Sell; else Strong Sell.",
    "ICE BofA HY OAS is not redistributed (FRED Pre-Approval Required); Baa\u221210Y is the labeled substitute.",
    "Price/Sales had no free redistributable source and has been removed. It is not scored.",
    "The S&P price chart colors only composite readings saved in gauge_signal_history.json. Earlier prices are context. No historical signal is estimated."
  ],
  "price_chart": {
    "title": "S&P 500 and the saved composite signal",
    "frequency": "monthly",
    "price_kind": "shiller_monthly_average",
    "source_name": "Robert J. Shiller, Irrational Exuberance data (monthly average price)",
    "source_url": "https://shillerdata.com/",
    "tracking_started": "2026-11-06",
    "history_unavailable_before": "2026-11-06",
    "disclaimer": "Signal tracking starts on the first date a composite was saved. Prices before that are shown in gray because no composite history was saved, and none is estimated. The line is Shiller's monthly average S&P price as first stored here, not a daily close and not an intraday quote. Stored months are not rewritten when Shiller revises them. Colored marks are saved gauge readings at the price then on file. This chart illustrates those readings. It is not a backtest of strategy returns.",
    "prices": [
      {
        "date": "1996-01",
        "price": 614.42
      },
      {
        "date": "1996-02",
        "price": 649.54
      },
      {
        "date": "1996-03",
        "price": 647.07
      },
      {
        "date": "1996-04",
        "price": 647.17
      },
      {
        "date": "1996-05",
        "price": 661.23
      },
      {
        "date": "1996-06",
        "price": 668.5
      },
      {
        "date": "1996-07",
        "price": 644.07
      },
      {
        "date": "1996-08",
        "price": 662.68
      },
      {
        "date": "1996-09",
        "price": 674.88
      },
      {
        "date": "1996-10",
        "price": 701.46
      },
      {
        "date": "1996-11",
        "price": 735.67
      },
      {
        "date": "1996-12",
        "price": 743.25
      },
      {
        "date": "1997-01",
        "price": 766.22
      },
      {
        "date": "1997-02",
        "price": 798.39
      },
      {
        "date": "1997-03",
        "price": 792.16
      },
      {
        "date": "1997-04",
        "price": 763.93
      },
      {
        "date": "1997-05",
        "price": 833.09
      },
      {
        "date": "1997-06",
        "price": 876.29
      },
      {
        "date": "1997-07",
        "price": 925.29
      },
      {
        "date": "1997-08",
        "price": 927.24
      },
      {
        "date": "1997-09",
        "price": 937.02
      },
      {
        "date": "1997-10",
        "price": 951.16
      },
      {
        "date": "1997-11",
        "price": 938.92
      },
      {
        "date": "1997-12",
        "price": 962.37
      },
      {
        "date": "1998-01",
        "price": 963.36
      },
      {
        "date": "1998-02",
        "price": 1023.74
      },
      {
        "date": "1998-03",
        "price": 1076.83
      },
      {
        "date": "1998-04",
        "price": 1112.2
      },
      {
        "date": "1998-05",
        "price": 1108.42
      },
      {
        "date": "1998-06",
        "price": 1108.39
      },
      {
        "date": "1998-07",
        "price": 1156.58
      },
      {
        "date": "1998-08",
        "price": 1074.62
      },
      {
        "date": "1998-09",
        "price": 1020.64
      },
      {
        "date": "1998-10",
        "price": 1032.47
      },
      {
        "date": "1998-11",
        "price": 1144.43
      },
      {
        "date": "1998-12",
        "price": 1190.05
      },
      {
        "date": "1999-01",
        "price": 1248.77
      },
      {
        "date": "1999-02",
        "price": 1246.58
      },
      {
        "date": "1999-03",
        "price": 1281.66
      },
      {
        "date": "1999-04",
        "price": 1334.76
      },
      {
        "date": "1999-05",
        "price": 1332.07
      },
      {
        "date": "1999-06",
        "price": 1322.55
      },
      {
        "date": "1999-07",
        "price": 1380.99
      },
      {
        "date": "1999-08",
        "price": 1327.49
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